Apple analyst Horace Dediu has some estimations regarding the Apple Watch’s market performance, and they are decidedly upbeat. Speaking at a new conference dedicated to the Apple Watch, Dediu suggested that there were 21 million shipments of the device in its first year.
Dediu assumed an average price of about $400 per unit—skewing toward the cheaper Sport models of the device—and therefore predicted that Apple brought in about $8.4 billion in revenues. AppleInsider reports that Dediu also asserted that 85 percent of users said the device, with its biometric fitness tracking features, helped to improve health, and 27 percent said they had lost weight.
Other analysts were also enthusiastic. Ben Bajarin of Creative Strategies predicted that Apple will ship over 100 million Apple Watches by 2017, and Fortune’s Philip Elmer-DeWitt says the company currently controls 80 percent of smartwatch marketshare.
To Apple fans, these numbers are likely encouraging, especially given doubts among some analysts over how successful the device has really been—doubts that have persisted as Apple has refused to issue comprehensive sales numbers. If Dediu and his fellow analysts are in the ballpark, Apple Watch could be considered a great success, and it certainly would explain Apple’s plans for a sequel.