Electronic passports will peak by 2022, only to be replaced by virtual credentials, according to a new report from Acuity Market Intelligence.

That same trend applies to all smart, biometric credentials including national ID cards and driver licenses, the market research firm says. And by 2030, “today’s standard identity credentials will be obsolete,” Acuity said in a statement.

The predictions build upon Acuity’s recent forecast that by 2018 all smartphones shipped will feature biometric technology, and that virtually all smartphones in use by 2020 will sport biometrics. As Acuity lead analyst Maxine Most explains, that trend provides “the tipping point for full-scale adoption of digital identity,” since the devices enable the secure authentication critical for valid ID documents. Acuity notes that multiple US states and Australia are already trialing mobile IDs, while Austria has launched a virtual national ID that can be used via smartphone.

Most takes things a step further, asserting that biometric virtual IDs “will also eliminate the need for separate payment mechanisms” by 2025, when “biometric authentication will be standard for trillions of annual payments”. Given the use of biometric authentication for major mPayment platforms today, the prediction, while remarkable, isn’t at all far-fetched. And Most adds that around 2030 physical payment cards will start to fall into disuse.

(Originally posted on FindBiometrics)